加工贸易对安徽省经济增长作用的实证分析

基于对安徽省加工贸易现状的总结、归纳,文章利用安徽省1999-2009年11年的时间序列数据,运用加工贸易增值系数法、加工贸易对GDP拉动度和线性回归三种实证方法,分析了加工贸易对经济增长的作用,并提出了若干政策建议。     

第三方物流的监督博弈研究

由于物流外包中物流需求方与物流服务商之间的签约后的信息不对称,带来了第三方物流中的道德风险。物流需求方通过对第三方物流服务商的监督激励能够有效地减少服务商的机会主义行为,提高服务商的服务水平,克服第三方物流应用中的负面效应。本文基于物流外包中第三方物流的违规动机和外包的风险,运用非合作博弈论的理论和方法,构建了第三方物流的监督博弈模型,并应用混合纳什均衡模型对第三方物流的监督问题进行了定量分析,详细分析了物流需求方和服务商的决策行为,求出了混合战略纳什均衡点,得出了制约博弈双方决策行为的关键因素,并提出了对第三方物流企业进行有效监督的若干建议,为物流需求方提供了有效监督决策的理论依据和实践参考。     

中国非正规经济(下)

三、非正规经济与社会流动 李明欢(厦门大学社会学系):劳动力市场跨国化和跨国的非正规经济 我要谈的题目是关于劳动力市场跨国化和跨国的非正规经济.从字面上看,这似乎是一个和本次会议主题有一定距离的话题,因为我讲的是跨国的非正规经济,而我们这次会议的主题是中国的非正规经济.那么,两者是否有联系呢?我想到一件事,大概是2001年吧,我到加拿大UBC,即位于温哥华的不列颠哥伦比亚大学参加一个学术研讨会.会上,一位加拿大教授在谈到跨国技术移民问题时,非常激动地挥着拳头大声说道:是千百万中国农民养育了比尔·盖茨!当时正是比尔·盖茨的微软事业如日中天之时,此言一出,全场一片唏嘘声,我作为在场唯一来自中国大陆的学者,感到强烈的震撼.     

Testing for Regime Changes in Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

This paper examines whether the efficiency market hypothesis for the Greek sovereign debt holds. As in Blanco et al. (2005) we test the theoretical equivalence of credit default swap (CDS) and spreads that dictates a CI relationship between the two. The main innovation of the present analysis is the use of a threshold vector error-correction (TVECM) model, thus allowing thresholds within the sample covering the period 1990 to 2010. Moreover, by employing this methodology we are able to evaluate the degree and dynamics of transaction costs resulting from various events due to external market imperfections but also domestic factors. The main hypothesis we test is to what extent spreads and CDS are indeed integrated that may result in an efficient and integrated segniorage capital market. Our findings support the gradual integration hypothesis. We find that spreads and CDS are cointegrated, though threshold effects are also revealed in terms of events that have impacted on markets.     

Fiscal Autonomy and Total Government Expenditure: An Austrian Case-study

The ongoing debate on the efficiency of a federal system versus a centralized system has lead to a diverse and unclear empirical picture of the effects of fiscal decentralization on public sector growth. For analyzing these effects it is crucial to consider the sub-national decision power on taxing and spending. In the current paper, we test for the effects of fiscal autonomy on total government expenditure using time series from 1955 to 2007 for Austria. Determinants of government expenditure are economic growth, fiscal illusion of policy makers, and the unemployment rate. We additionally account for different degrees of sub-national fiscal autonomy. Our econometric results suggest that the often-hypothesized dampening effects of fiscal autonomy cannot be corroborated for the Austrian system.     

Under what conditions may social contracts arise? Evidence from the Hanseatic League

Social contractarians commonly take social contracts to be solely hypothetical and refrain from elaborating on the factors that influence the feasibility of the formation of social contracts. In contrast, this paper aims at providing a discussion of the conditions affecting the feasibility of social contracts. I argue that the more aligned the preferences of group members for public goods are, the more the individuals share similar social norms, and the smaller the group is the more feasible a genuine social contract becomes. I provide evidence in support of my contention from the medieval Hanseatic League. At the Hanseatic Kontor in Novgorod, one of the four major trading posts of the Hanseatic League in cities outside of Germany, German merchants agreed to live under the rule of a constitution that gave rise to a political authority for the Kontor society.     

Federalism and decentralization—a critical survey of frequently used indicators

The economic effects of federalism are unclear: some papers find that federalism has strong positive effects on a number of economically relevant variables, others find negative effects. The results often crucially hinge on the proxies for federalism used. In this paper, we critically survey the existing indicators for both federalism and fiscal decentralization. We argue that federalism is a constitutional institution, whereas decentralization is the outcome of a policy choice, and that the two ought to be systematically distinguished because decentralization can also occur in nonfederally structured states. We further argue that institutional details are very important with regard to federalism and that dummy variables usually capture only very specific aspects of these institutional details. We use factor analysis to test whether the latent variables behind the observed indicators support these assumptions. More than two important factors are derived, implying that a more fine-grained differentiation beyond simply “‘federalism” and “decentralization” might be in order. The correlations of the most important proxies for various aspects of federalism and decentralization with a number of quasi-exogenous variables, as well as with institutional variables, are usually rather modest.     

“Core” and “Periphery” in a Monetary Union: A Macroeconomic Policy Game

We develop a dynamic game model of a two-country monetary union to study strategic interactions between macroeconomic policy makers, namely the central bank and governments. In this union, the governments of participating countries pursue national goals when deciding on fiscal policies, whereas the common central bank’s monetary policy aims at union-wide objective variables. The union considered is asymmetric, consisting of a core, with lower initial public debt, and a periphery, with higher initial public debt. For a symmetric demand shock, we derive numerical solutions of the dynamic game between the governments and the central bank using the OPTGAME algorithm. We show that mildly active cooperative countercyclical policies dominate noncooperative solutions and a scenario of no policy intervention. Optimal policies call for a brief expansionary action to bolster the effects on output and a return to a small fiscal primary surplus as soon as the crisis is over until the targeted level of public debt is reached.